← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 37% | 39% | 2.59 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 34% | 36% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +5% |
| Over | 49% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | George Abbott · Notts County |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nick Tsaroulla · Notts County |
| 33' | 🟨 | Brandon Cover · Fleetwood Town |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 42' | 🟨 | Kellan Gordon · Notts County |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matthew Platt · Notts County |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 89' | ⚽ | Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Abbott · Notts County |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Charlie Whitaker · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 90.00 | 1004.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.24 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1340.10 | 1386.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.40 | 4.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 44.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |