← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Tallis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 37% | 38% | 2.60 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 33% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 53% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | George McEachran · Grimsby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rhys Bennett · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Danny Mayor · Fleetwood Town |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 63' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 64' | ⚽ | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 66' | 🟨 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Donovan Wilson · Grimsby |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Bolton · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| coach days | 479.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 4.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1296.37 | 1340.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.28 | -17.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| league points | 48.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.37 |
| state index | -0.13 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |