← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Eley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 36% | 38% | 2.67 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 31% | 29% | 3.14 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 69% | 61% | 1.38 | fair |
| Over | 31% | 39% | 3.10 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Lyle Taylor · Colchester |
| 21' | 🟨 | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 25' | 🟨 | Owura Edwards · Colchester |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · AFC Wimbledon |
| 60' | 🟨 | Isaac Ogundere · AFC Wimbledon |
| 65' | 🟨 | James Tilley · AFC Wimbledon |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ellis Iandolo · Colchester |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 83' | 🟨 | Owen Goodman · AFC Wimbledon |
| 89' | ⚽ | Samson Tovide |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Owura Edwards · Colchester |
| 90' | 🟥 | Owura Edwards · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 418.00 |
| 1028.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1480.43 | 1578.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.95 | 24.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.87 |
| league points | 42.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 61.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |