← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Morland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 46% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.43 | fair |
| Accrington win | 26% | 33% | 3.90 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Accrington +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.82 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Harry Clifton · Doncaster |
| 36' | 🟨 | Robert Street · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Connor O'Brien · Accrington |
| 57' | ⚽ | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Benn Ward · Doncaster |
| 71' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 79' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 79' | 🟨 | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | Benjamin Woods · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Patrick Kelly · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Teddy Sharman-Lowe · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 358.00 | 663.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1419.22 | 1547.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.60 | -7.89 |
| eye test v1 | -1.67 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 0.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.80 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |