← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 37% | 46% | 2.60 | value: +18% |
| Colchester win | 32% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Colchester +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Taylor Allen · Walsall |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Flanagan · Colchester |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fiacre Kelleher · Colchester |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jamille Matt · Walsall |
| 65' | ⚽ | Charlie Lakin · Walsall |
| 69' | ⚽ | Teddy Bishop · Colchester |
| 74' | ⚽ | Owura Edwards · Colchester |
| 78' | 🟨 | Taylor Allen · Walsall |
| 78' | 🟥 | Taylor Allen · Walsall |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Colchester |
| 89' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Walsall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyreece Simpson · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 404.00 |
| 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1466.00 | 1578.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.04 | -22.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -1.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 37.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -1.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |