← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Thu, Feb 6, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Rollason
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 38% | 31% | 2.51 | fair |
| Chesterfield win | 34% | 41% | 2.81 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Chesterfield +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Dylan Duffy · Chesterfield |
| 29' | 🟨 | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 37' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Chesterfield |
| 42' | 🟨 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 54' | ⚽ | Michael Olakigbe · Chesterfield |
| 56' | 🟨 | Charlie Crew · Doncaster |
| 59' | ⚽ | Aribim Pepple · Chesterfield |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jay McGrath · Doncaster |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Jack Sparkes · Chesterfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Ironside · Doncaster |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ollie Banks · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1101.00 | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1464.26 | 1574.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.03 | 21.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 39.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.22 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |