← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Duckworth
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 44% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 27% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Morecambe +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 51% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 49% | 2.28 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Callum Cooke · Morecambe |
| 29' | 🟨 | Hallam Hope · Morecambe |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jay Lynch · Fleetwood Town |
| 41' | ⚽ | James Bolton · Fleetwood Town |
| 52' | ⚽ | Andrew Dallas · Morecambe |
| 58' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Fleetwood Town |
| 59' | ⚽ | Andrew Dallas · Morecambe |
| 75' | ⚽ | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Fleetwood Town |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marcus Dackers · Morecambe |
| 88' | 🟨 | James Bolton · Fleetwood Town |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matthew Virtue-Thick |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Mazuma Mobile Stadium |
| 89' | 🟨 | Max Taylor · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 245.00 |
| 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1362.86 | 1514.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.13 | 23.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 58.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | -2.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -1.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |