← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 38% | 37% | 2.58 | fair |
| Swindon win | 33% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Swindon +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 47% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 53% | 2.15 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Jordan Jones · Carlisle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daniel Butterworth · Swindon |
| 47' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
| 63' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Swindon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jordan Jones · Carlisle |
| 66' | 🟥 | Jordan Jones · Carlisle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Joe Westley · Swindon |
| 88' | ⚽ | Joe Hugill · Carlisle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ryan Delaney · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paul Glatzel · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| Will Wright · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 0.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1421.10 | 1452.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.66 | 27.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 21.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |