← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 48% | 41% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +10% |
| Gillingham win | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Notts County +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.82 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Nick Tsaroulla · Notts County |
| 20' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 25' | 🟨 | Shadrach Ogie · Gillingham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jodi Jones · Notts County |
| 45' | 🟨 | Max Ehmer · Gillingham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Robbie McKenzie · Gillingham |
| 59' | 🟨 | Elliott Nevitt · Gillingham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joseph Gbode · Gillingham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Rod McDonald · Notts County |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joseph Gbode · Gillingham |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| George Abbott · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Will Jarvis · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 276.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1433.32 | 1549.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.09 | 17.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.41 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.05 | 1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |