← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 52% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.68 | fair |
| Tranmere win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Tranmere −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Josh Davison · Tranmere |
| 19' | 🟨 | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 22' | 🟨 | Harry Smith · Swindon |
| 22' | 🟨 | Declan Drysdale · Tranmere |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ollie Clarke · Swindon |
| 53' | 🟨 | Josh Davison · Tranmere |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 62' | 🟥 | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 87' | ⚽ | Paul Glatzel · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Declan Drysdale · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Nigel Eady County Ground |
| 🟥 |
| Declan Drysdale · Tranmere |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Swindon |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Kabongo Tshimanga · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 119.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1442.75 | 1382.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.28 | -18.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 31.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.36 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |