← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 54% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 19% | 22% | 5.19 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 54% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 46% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu · Fleetwood Town |
| 19' | ⚽ | Cedwyn Scott · Carlisle |
| 23' | 🟨 | William Patching · Carlisle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Finley Potter · Fleetwood Town |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rhys Bennett · Fleetwood Town |
| 70' | 🟨 | Elliot Embleton · Carlisle |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 85' | ⚽ | Samuel Lavelle · Carlisle |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joe Hugill · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Gabriel Breeze · Carlisle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 55.00 | 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1511.65 | 1412.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.39 | -29.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.37 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.84 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |