← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 50% | 59% | 1.95 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 24% | 18% | 3.99 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 57% | 1.84 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 43% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Scott Hogan · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jay Williams · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 26' | 🟨 | Albert Adomah · Walsall |
| 27' | 🟨 | Connor Barrett · Walsall |
| 32' | ⚽ | David Okagbue · Walsall |
| 46' | ⚽ | Liam Gordon · Walsall |
| 49' | 🟨 | David Okagbue · Walsall |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jamie Jellis · Walsall |
| 66' | ⚽ | Harry Williams · Walsall |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 81' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Poundland Bescot Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Albert Adomah · Walsall |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kane Thompson-Sommers · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 658.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1608.35 | 1526.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.62 | -45.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| league points | 55.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.55 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |