← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Parkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 62% | 68% | 1.55 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.31 | fair |
| Newport County win | 15% | 14% | 6.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Newport County −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.85 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 16' | 🟨 | Ryan Croasdale · Port Vale |
| 27' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 33' | ⚽ | Cameron Evans · Newport County |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jaheim Headley · Port Vale |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 87' | 🟥 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 352.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1344.80 | 1252.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.23 | 0.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 41.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.39 | 21.96 |
| state index | -0.66 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |