← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 65% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +8% |
| Tranmere win | 13% | 16% | 7.56 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Tranmere −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.90 | value: +8% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Walsall |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ryan Stirk · Walsall |
| 23' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Tranmere |
| 29' | 🟨 | Oisin McEntee · Walsall |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kristian Dennis · Tranmere |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sam Finley · Tranmere |
| 38' | 🟨 | Sam Finley · Tranmere |
| 38' | 🟥 | Sam Finley · Tranmere |
| 44' | ⚽ | Connor Jennings · Tranmere |
| 45' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Poundland Bescot Stadium |
| Jamie Jellis · Walsall |
| 49' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Walsall |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jamie Jellis · Walsall |
| 80' | ⚽ | Nathan Lowe · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 651.00 | 498.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1601.67 | 1395.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.65 | -2.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 52.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 9.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.21 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |