← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Jackson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 40% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| Bromley win | 32% | 31% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bromley −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Crewe −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Omar Bogle · Crewe |
| 32' | ⚽ | Omar Bogle · Crewe |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Michael Cheek · Bromley |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jack Lankester · Crewe |
| 52' | 🟨 | Grant Smith · Bromley |
| 55' | 🟨 | Lewis Billington · Crewe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ryan Cooney · Crewe |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kamarl Grant · Bromley |
| 79' | 🟨 | Kamarl Grant · Bromley |
| 79' | 🟥 | Kamarl Grant · Bromley |
| 82' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Bromley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Mornflake Stadium |
| Omar Sowunmi · Bromley |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jamie Knight-Lebel · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 796.00 | 1406.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1536.75 | 1533.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.47 | 37.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 56.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -2.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -2.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |