← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Thu, Jan 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 55% | 61% | 1.75 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
| Newport County win | 20% | 19% | 4.86 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Newport County +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 45% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 55% | 2.01 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand