← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 37% | 35% | 2.58 | fair |
| Swindon win | 33% | 37% | 2.93 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester +0 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Swindon +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Ollie Clarke · Swindon |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jamie McDonnell · Colchester |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Payne · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tunmise Sobowale · Swindon |
| 45' | 🟨 | John-Kymani Gordon · Colchester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Daniel Barden · Swindon |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Payne · Colchester |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ellis Iandolo · Colchester |
| 82' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Cox · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ellis Iandolo · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Nigel Eady County Ground |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ellis Iandolo · Colchester |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | George Cox · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 92.00 |
| 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1415.46 | 1458.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.73 | 30.61 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.82 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.41 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |