← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 48% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Carlisle win | 24% | 24% | 4.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Crewe −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 54% | 1.61 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 46% | 2.35 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Samuel Lavelle · Carlisle |
| 21' | ⚽ | Jack Ellis · Carlisle |
| 32' | ⚽ | Christopher Long · Crewe |
| 35' | 🟨 | Zac Williams · Crewe |
| 53' | 🟨 | Harrison Neal · Carlisle |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kadeem Harris · Carlisle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gabriel Breeze · Carlisle |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jamie Knight-Lebel · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Conway · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Carlisle |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Mornflake Stadium |
| Omar Bogle · Crewe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Lankester · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 792.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1530.94 | 1435.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.79 | -17.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 36.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |