← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 36% | 39% | 2.66 | value: +4% |
| Colchester win | 35% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Doncaster +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Colchester +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 58% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jamie Sterry · Doncaster |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jordan Gibson · Doncaster |
| 42' | 🟨 | Owen Bailey · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamie McDonnell · Colchester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lyle Taylor · Colchester |
| 51' | ⚽ | Lyle Taylor · Colchester |
| 60' | 🟨 | Oscar Thorn · Colchester |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jordan Gibson · Doncaster |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jordan Gibson · Doncaster |
| 80' | 🟥 | Jordan Gibson · Doncaster |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ellis Iandolo · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 363.00 | 608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1457.60 | 1547.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.44 | 0.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |