← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Humphries
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 42% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 31% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Notts County +0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sam Stubbs · Cheltenham |
| 26' | ⚽ | Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
| 28' | 🟨 | Matt Palmer · Notts County |
| 39' | ⚽ | Josh Martin · Notts County |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ryan Bowman · Cheltenham |
| 58' | ⚽ | George Abbott · Notts County |
| 60' | ⚽ | Joel Colwill · Cheltenham |
| 62' | ⚽ | Sam Austin · Notts County |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jack Hinchy · Notts County |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lewis Payne · Cheltenham |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | EV Charger Points Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Alassana Jatta · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 242.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1538.03 | 1514.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.24 | 9.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| league points | 30.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.31 | 1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.19 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |