← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 39% | 44% | 2.50 | value: +11% |
| Accrington win | 34% | 27% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Accrington +0 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Kadeem Harris · Carlisle |
| 29' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Accrington |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dominic Sadi · Carlisle |
| 49' | 🟨 | Daniel Adu-Adjei · Carlisle |
| 50' | 🟨 | Cameron Harper · Carlisle |
| 54' | ⚽ | Luke Armstrong · Carlisle |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nelson Khumbeni · Accrington |
| 66' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 73' | ⚽ | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ashley Hunter · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gabriel Breeze · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Jones · Carlisle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 119.00 |
| 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1427.56 | 1424.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.75 | -36.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.03 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 56.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -2.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.90 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |