← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Russell
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Swindon win | 39% | 37% | 2.45 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 34% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.60 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Swindon +0 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Grimsby +0 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Nigel Eady County Ground |