← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 57% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.03 | fair |
| Newport County win | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Newport County +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Bryn Morris · Newport County |
| 16' | ⚽ | Bryn Morris · Newport County |
| 23' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 34' | 🟨 | Aaron Nemane · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryn Morris · Newport County |
| 45' | ⚽ | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 47' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 71' | ⚽ | Joe White · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joe White · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 75' | ⚽ | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.54 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 79' |
| 🟨 |
| Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
| 79' | 🟨 | Laurence Maguire · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 81' | ⚽ | Bobby Kamwa · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 173.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1425.66 | 1572.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.45 | 20.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |