← Premier League 2000-01 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Steve Lodge
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Man United win | 44% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.20 |
| Middlesbrough win | 28% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand