← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 43% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Bradford win | 29% | 31% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bradford −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 59% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Aden Baldwin · Bradford |
| 47' | ⚽ | Omar Bogle · Crewe |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jay Benn · Bradford |
| 51' | 🟨 | Shilow Tracey · Crewe |
| 54' | 🟨 | Max Sanders · Crewe |
| 55' | ⚽ | Alexander Pattison · Bradford |
| 57' | 🟥 | Alexander Pattison · Bradford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Zac Williams · Crewe |
| 58' | 🟨 | Richard Smallwood · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Powell · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crewe | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Mornflake Stadium |
| Sam Walker · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 767.00 | 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1529.15 | 1523.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.85 | -24.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | — |
| league points | 30.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |