← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Dec 3, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 39% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Accrington win | 31% | 35% | 3.10 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Grimsby −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 44% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 11' | ⚽ | Jayden Luker · Grimsby |
| 19' | ⚽ | Justin Obikwu · Grimsby |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nelson Khumbeni · Accrington |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Davies · Grimsby |
| 40' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Accrington |
| 63' | ⚽ | Alex Henderson · Accrington |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Sonny Aljofree · Grimsby |
| 80' | ⚽ | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ashley Hunter · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| coach days | 398.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1261.57 | 1279.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.01 | 19.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 53.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 10.30 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -2.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 24.06 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |