← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Nov 19, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 55% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.84 | fair |
| Accrington win | 19% | 15% | 5.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Accrington −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mathew Stevens · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Accrington |
| 58' | ⚽ | Nelson Khumbeni · Accrington |
| 60' | 🟨 | James Tilley · AFC Wimbledon |
| 70' | 🟨 | James Ball · AFC Wimbledon |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dara Costelloe · Accrington |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tyler Walton · Accrington |
| 89' | ⚽ | Alistair Smith · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Neufville · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ashley Hunter · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟥 | Farrend Rawson · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Tilley · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 933.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1525.62 | 1460.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.59 | 23.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.12 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 53.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -3.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |