← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Kennard-Kettle
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Port Vale win | 55% | 50% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +12% |
| Morecambe win | 21% | 21% | 5.00 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Morecambe +0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Port Vale +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Mazuma Mobile Stadium |