← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Durkin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bromley win | 49% | 43% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +8% |
| Carlisle win | 25% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bromley −0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 46% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 54% | 1.96 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Callum Anthony Guy · Carlisle |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tyler Burey · Carlisle |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Michael Cheek · Bromley |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ben Thompson · Bromley |
| 67' | 🟨 | Taylor Charters · Carlisle |
| 83' | 🟥 | Lewis Leigh · Bromley |
| 83' | 🟨 | Samuel Lavelle · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Barclay · Carlisle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominic Sadi · Carlisle |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bromley | Carlisle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Hayes Lane |
| ⚽ |
| Daniel Adu-Adjei · Carlisle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1356.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1476.65 | 1449.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.21 | -22.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |