← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 55% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.82 | fair |
| Newport County win | 19% | 18% | 4.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Newport County −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Cameron Norman · Tranmere |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 41' | ⚽ | Connor Jennings · Tranmere |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kyle Hudlin · Newport County |
| 88' | 🟨 | Cameron Evans · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Hudlin · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟥 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| coach days | 435.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1426.37 | 1424.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.28 | -14.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |