← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bannister
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Brandon Cover · Port Vale |
| 11' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 11' | ⚽ | Rico Richards · Port Vale |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jesse Debrah · Port Vale |
| 61' | ⚽ | Josh Neufville · AFC Wimbledon |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jason Lowe · Port Vale |
| 78' | ⚽ | Myles Hippolyte · AFC Wimbledon |
| 87' | 🟨 | Benicio Boaitey · Port Vale |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| 🟨 |
| Connor Ripley · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 268.00 | 909.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1599.17 | 1530.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.48 | 4.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.08 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |