← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 48% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.82 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Chesterfield +0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 62% | 1.72 | value: +6% |
| Under | 45% | 38% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
| 10' | ⚽ | Ben Tollitt · Morecambe |
| 22' | 🟨 | Marcus Dackers · Morecambe |
| 48' | ⚽ | Darren Oldaker · Chesterfield |
| 61' | ⚽ (og) | Tom Naylor · Morecambe |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jenson Metcalfe · Chesterfield |
| 74' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 81' | ⚽ | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jamie Stott · Morecambe |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mazuma Mobile Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Tom White · Morecambe |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gwion Edwards · Morecambe |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jamie Grimes · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 147.00 | 998.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1389.30 | 1452.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.19 | 20.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| league points | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.70 | 0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.64 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |