← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 60% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.32 | fair |
| Accrington win | 17% | 18% | 5.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Dean Lewington · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 1' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 43' | 🟨 | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 52' | 🟨 | Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 58' | ⚽ | Joseph Tomlinson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 67' | ⚽ | Josh Woods · Accrington |
| 72' | 🟨 | Joseph Tomlinson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jake Thomas Batty · Accrington |
| 81' | 🟨 | Donald Love · Accrington |
| 82' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadium MK |
| 86' | 🟨 | Luke Offord · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Hunter · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 51.00 |
| 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1546.38 | 1446.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.99 | 28.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.58 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 53.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -2.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |