← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 51% | 49% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 21% | 22% | 4.74 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Gillingham −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 62% | 1.83 | value: +13% |
| Over | 47% | 38% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jayden Clarke · Gillingham |
| 22' | 🟨 | Timothée Dieng · Gillingham |
| 24' | 🟨 | Tyreik Wright · Bradford |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jayden Clarke · Gillingham |
| 38' | ⚽ | Neill Byrne · Bradford |
| 42' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Gillingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Coleman · Gillingham |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jack Shepherd · Bradford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Bradford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Neill Byrne · Bradford |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bradford | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | University of Bradford Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Brad Halliday · Bradford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bobby Pointon · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 353.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1541.10 | 1491.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.51 | -18.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.34 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |