← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Baines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 38% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 33% | 37% | 2.91 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Swindon +0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 47% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Nnamdi Ofoborh · Swindon |
| 30' | ⚽ | George Cox · Swindon |
| 34' | ⚽ | Will Wright · Swindon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lewis Shipley · Cheltenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Cox · Swindon |
| 47' | ⚽ | Joel McGregor · Swindon |
| 59' | 🟨 | George Miller · Cheltenham |
| 63' | ⚽ | George Miller · Cheltenham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Ethon Archer · Cheltenham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rosaire Longelo · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | EV Charger Points Stadium |
| Will Wright · Swindon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Barden · Swindon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 164.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1518.52 | 1408.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.05 | -0.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.25 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |