← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Baines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Walsall −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +6% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Harry Williams · Walsall |
| 25' | ⚽ | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rhys Bennett · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jamille Matt · Walsall |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 57' | ⚽ | Kayden Hughes · Fleetwood Town |
| 67' | ⚽ | Kayden Hughes · Fleetwood Town |
| 85' | ⚽ | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Harrington · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Poundland Bescot Stadium |
| coach days | 549.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1355.63 | 1402.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.73 | 3.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.90 | 25.57 |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.61 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |