← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 42% | 46% | 2.30 | value: +5% |
| Chesterfield win | 31% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.57 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Doncaster −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Brandon Fleming · Doncaster |
| 31' | ⚽ | Chey Dunkley · Chesterfield |
| 38' | 🟨 | Paddy Madden · Chesterfield |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jay McGrath · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 49' | 🟥 | Luke Molyneux · Doncaster |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Paddy Madden · Chesterfield |
| 75' | 🟨 | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ephraim Yeboah · Doncaster |
| 85' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Doncaster | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Eco-Power Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Tom Anderson · Doncaster |
| 90' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 516.00 | 970.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1557.27 | 1405.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.27 | 0.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 66.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.29 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |