← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Mon, Sep 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Corlett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.25 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 16% | 20% | 6.00 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Fleetwood Town −1 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
| 38' | 🟨 | Yann Songo'o · Morecambe |
| 40' | 🟨 | Lee Angol · Morecambe |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Tollitt · Morecambe |
| 71' | 🟨 | James Bolton · Fleetwood Town |
| 74' | ⚽ | Yann Songo'o · Morecambe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Mackenzie Hunt · Fleetwood Town |
| 86' | ⚽ | Hallam Hope · Morecambe |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kayden Harrack · Morecambe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Graydon · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 297.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1532.72 | 1396.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.98 | -34.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 9.21 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.24 | -1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |