← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester win | 41% | 35% | 2.38 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 31% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 43% | 3.50 | value: +50% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Colchester +0.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Ben Tollitt · Morecambe |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lee Angol · Morecambe |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luke Hendrie · Morecambe |
| 42' | 🟨 | Luke Hendrie · Morecambe |
| 42' | 🟥 | Luke Hendrie · Morecambe |
| 43' | ⚽ | Owura Edwards · Colchester |
| 49' | ⚽ | Samson Tovide · Colchester |
| 64' | ⚽ | Lyle Taylor · Colchester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jordan Slew · Morecambe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mandela Egbo · Colchester |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mazuma Mobile Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Callum Jones · Morecambe |
| 88' | ⚽ (og) | Tom Flanagan · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 105.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1397.88 | 1410.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.60 | 2.87 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -1.29 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |