← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Tallis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 38% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 35% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.47 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 56% | 1.98 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Danny Mayor · Fleetwood Town |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 20' | 🟨 | Aaron Hayden · Carlisle |
| 21' | 🟨 | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Charlie Wyke · Carlisle |
| 52' | ⚽ | Charlie Wyke · Carlisle |
| 58' | 🟨 | Matthew Virtue-Thick · Fleetwood Town |
| 68' | ⚽ | Danny Mayor · Fleetwood Town |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 78' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Carlisle |
| 79' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| 🟨 |
| Archie Davies · Carlisle |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jordan Jones · Carlisle |
| 87' | 🟨 | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 13.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1499.92 | 1521.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.62 | -13.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.73 |
| league points | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 73.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.75 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |