← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Parkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 44% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
| Newport County win | 29% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.61 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Newport County +0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 24' | ⚽ | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 35' | 🟨 | Anthony Driscoll-Glennon · Newport County |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jayden Stockley · Port Vale |
| 37' | 🟨 | Brandon Cover · Port Vale |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ethan Chislett · Port Vale |
| 50' | 🟨 | Cameron Evans · Newport County |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 54' | ⚽ | Lorent Tolaj · Port Vale |
| 58' | 🟥 | Ciaran Brennan · Newport County |
| 67' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 24 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newport County | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rodney Parade |
| 🟨 |
| Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 67' | 🟥 | Kyle Jameson · Newport County |
| 85' | 🟨 | Aaron Wildig · Newport County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antwoine Hackford · Port Vale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 68.00 | 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1458.11 | 1540.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.24 | -11.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |