← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 57% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.16 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 19% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Grimsby −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Darren Oldaker · Chesterfield |
| 26' | 🟨 | Tyrell Warren · Grimsby |
| 28' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jamie Grimes · Chesterfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dilan Markanday · Chesterfield |
| 50' | ⚽ | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 58' | 🟨 | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 62' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 67' | 🟨 | Darren Oldaker · Chesterfield |
| 67' | 🟥 | Darren Oldaker · Chesterfield |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Will Grigg · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Carson · Grimsby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 949.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1398.55 | 1427.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.88 | -3.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.25 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.57 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.75 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.57 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.25 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.08 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |