← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford win | 44% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
| Grimsby win | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford +0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Grimsby +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 28' | ⚽ | Danny Rose · Grimsby |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alexander Pattison · Bradford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyrell Warren · Grimsby |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jason Daði Svanþórsson · Grimsby |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Bradford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cameron McJannett · Grimsby |
| 68' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tyreik Wright · Bradford |
| 78' | ⚽ | Oliver Sanderson · Bradford |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| 🟨 |
| Jamie Walker · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 304.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1415.37 | 1545.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.74 | 42.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 72.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |