← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 37% | 36% | 2.58 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 34% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Gillingham +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 53% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Shadrach Ogie · Gillingham |
| 8' | ⚽ | Robbie McKenzie · Gillingham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Gillingham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Max Ehmer · Gillingham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Max Ehmer · Gillingham |
| 60' | 🟥 | Max Ehmer · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jenson Metcalfe · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chey Dunkley · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chey Dunkley · Chesterfield |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Chey Dunkley · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 122.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1497.14 | 1404.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.02 | 23.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 68.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 83.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 64.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |