← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 41% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 31% | 32% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Grimsby −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Bakare · Cheltenham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lewis Payne · Cheltenham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tom Pett · Cheltenham |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jordan Davies · Grimsby |
| 51' | ⚽ | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 57' | 🟨 | Matty Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Luke Young · Cheltenham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ryan Bowman · Cheltenham |
| 82' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Grimsby | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Blundell Park |
| 🟨 |
| Scot Bennett · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jordan Davies · Grimsby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 290.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1415.81 | 1585.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.30 | 3.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |