← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Middleton
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 46% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Colchester win | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Colchester −0.25 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 51% | 1.87 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 49% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Ben Goodliffe · Colchester |
| 9' | ⚽ | Ben Goodliffe · Colchester |
| 13' | ⚽ | James Ball · AFC Wimbledon |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 35' | 🟨 | Joe Lewis · AFC Wimbledon |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Mathew Stevens · AFC Wimbledon |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rob Hunt · Colchester |
| 54' | ⚽ | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jake Reeves · AFC Wimbledon |
| 82' | 🟨 | James Ball · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Owen Goodman · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 832.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1318.01 | 1238.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.70 | 6.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.90 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 27.22 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |