← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Swindon win | 63% | 54% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.07 | value: +30% |
| Morecambe win | 17% | 21% | 5.80 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Morecambe −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Swindon −1.25 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 69% | 60% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 40% | 3.10 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand