← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 46% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +4% |
| Sutton win | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Sutton −0.25 | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Jack Payne · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 41' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 50' | ⚽ | Stephen Duke-McKenna · Sutton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Emre Tezgel · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 62' | ⚽ | Charlie Lakin · Sutton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Craig Eastmond · Sutton |
| 67' | 🟨 | Warren O'Hora · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sam Hart · Sutton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ellis Harrison · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 75' | ⚽ | Stephen Duke-McKenna · Sutton |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 12 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Sutton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| 🟨 |
| Ellis Harrison · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harry Smith · Sutton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 209.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1415.56 | 1253.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.10 | 22.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 77.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 54.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | -2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 28.13 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |