← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Herczeg
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 43% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Bradford win | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Walsall −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 52% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ryan Stirk · Walsall |
| 16' | ⚽ | Mo Faal · Walsall |
| 19' | ⚽ | Andy Cook · Bradford |
| 32' | 🟨 | Taylor Allen · Walsall |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ciaran Kelly · Bradford |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tyreik Wright · Bradford |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 68' | 🟥 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Poundland Bescot Stadium |
| Jamie Walker · Bradford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Knowles · Walsall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Richard Smallwood · Bradford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 385.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1325.94 | 1323.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.72 | 16.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 65.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.66 | 26.94 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.77 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |