← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport win | 70% | 77% | 1.36 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.25 | fair |
| Accrington win | 11% | 8% | 9.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −1.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Stockport −1.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kyle Wootton · Stockport |
| 17' | ⚽ | Shaun Whalley · Accrington |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kyle Knoyle · Stockport |
| 43' | ⚽ | Connor Lemonheigh-Evans · Stockport |
| 44' | 🟨 | Louie Barry · Stockport |
| 56' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 62' | ⚽ | Kyle Wootton · Stockport |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jack Nolan · Accrington |
| 79' | ⚽ | Antoni Sarcevic · Stockport |
| 80' | 🟨 | Brad Hills · Accrington |
| 87' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stockport | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Edgeley Park |
| 🟨 |
| Lewis Shipley · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 901.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1492.48 | 1267.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.78 | -7.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 89.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 63.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.02 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.26 | 24.30 |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |